Winds of change blow in Alberta

Yesterday's comment window yielded this from my friend Paul:

Debris Trail said...

Bill, this is a carry over from a question I asked you over at CJUNK. You've got
connection in AB; tell us: In your opinion, how is mood there? The people I know
are all hardcore separatists from way back, so I don't count them. How is the
mood in the general population?

My friend and fellow blogger Paul at C-Junk asked a question in the last post's commentary that I feel needs a full answer to the best of my ability. The comments block is isufficient to deal with the subject of Alberta's political marginalization or its current political climate.

I won't get into the historuical confederal and constitutional greivences here because they are well known to Albertans and their academics or anyone with any interest and knowledge of western alienation issues. I no longer take the time to educate the purposely dumb on the already widely available Alberta/western greivences. Speaking honestly and objectively about the second class treatment Alberta and the periphery regions of Confederation have gotten from Ottawa should be added to Margret Wente's list of subjects which have been politically cleansed from partisan liberal nattering circles.


I'll address the question in 2 parts.

First: The current committed support for hard core separation.

The only polling research done here has been by the Klein government or phone polls by separatist organizations and a single question poll about independence by the Herald. The research that was leaked from last year's Klein PC "Firewall town hall" tour of the province is very interesting. Rumor has it that sympathetic persons inside the government have released "unofficially" to leadership in the independence movement, the stats that were gleaned-out of the "official" media release from that token firewall dog and pony show. It appears, that of the people the Klein PCs enticed out to the province-wide firewall meetings, fully 78% support the firewall items in principle and there is a 15% hard core who see Firewalling the province as a first step to an official, on-going policy of cutting political ties with Ottawa. The phone polling people in the ASP executive have done found pretty much the same thing...about 15% hard core separatists.....However, when the firewall option was not mentioned, more than 60% of respondents said that separation ( that was the word used, not "independence") was a legitimate option if no change in Ottawa was seen.

The Herald poll asked almost the same question ( the word and concept of outright separation was not used) but more than 70% of respondents viewed "independence" as a viable political option to resolve the historic Alberta greivences with Ottawa and Alberta's electoral impotence.

Personally I think these figures are spurious and fleeting and will change from day to day depending on how owley the population is feeling with Ottawa's stone walling and revenue raiding on any given day. From the unofficial straw polling I do at the many local fairs, gun shows, rodeos and town halls I have attended with independence petitions, I'd say that hard core separation support ranges from 10-25% dependant on where you go and the soft separation ( or firewall independence) ranges from 40-75% dependent on where you go. I trust the feel of these numbers if they were to be extrapolated over the whole population because Alberta is gifted with having less than 12% committed lib-left-federal statist voter base.....a gift of small bureaucracy, small numbers in public sector unionism/federal statism. ;-)

The wild card is the large portion of Albertans still active in the provincial PCs and the federal CPC who see Harper's shot at getting the western democratic reform agenda on the federal agenda, as a last go round before we do something more drastic. There is a large demographic of voters who are still looking for change through the federal system and see Harper as the last try. When they are disillusioned by Harper's and the CPC's rejection by the eastern establishment once again, we will see the ranks of independence support swell....possibly by as much as 50%.
Whether they will be soft or hard separatists is a coin toss...but my educated guess would be they will align pretty much along the lines their already decided fellow Albertans have.

Bottom line is; if the current status quo in Ottawa is maintained after the next federal election, there will be a lot of politically active, and politically savvy Albertans writing off the federal system as any solution to the confederal/democratic deficit. Many will swell the ranks of the Separatist party and many will revitalize the PC party to be a firewall government. At any rate Alberta's political landscape will change dramatically in a post Martin reelection Canada.

Secondly: What is the nature of the "soft separatist" in Alberta and what are the numbers of his ranks?

The "soft" separatists....we will refer to them as the "firewall Albertans" are best epitomized by this man,( who I have hunted with and run constitutional challenges with and BTW is an excellent wing shot) Dr. F.L."Ted" Morton. Ted is a classic libertarian ( as am I) who has found ideological camaraderie in the Blue PC fraternity of Alberta and the libertarian-based CPC. He was once elected to be an Alberta senator but Martin/Chretien insults in appointing their lapdogs to the positions sent him to Provincial politics to effect change through the firewall. He is the core of the new Blue PC caucus, the firewall movement ( or soft indies) and potentially Alberta's next premier.

I differ with Ted on his
solution, I advocateimmediately severing all political ties to Ottawa after a
successful local referendum to cut them loose. ( We are not so leaving Canada as
simply remaining where we are and losing one expensive, corrupt level of
government...I bet many of you nay-sayers are envious of our ability to do
this)

I'll let you read Ted's articles from the link so you grasp the concepts in "firewall pseudo- independence"...all I will deal with here is how the firewall concepts dovetail into the wider perceptions of the soft independence supporter.

The average "soft indi" or Firewall independence support has one major expectational/ideological flaw....having seen, and been disillusioned by, the inability for Albertans to effect democratic reforms through the federal system, he believes that the firewall agenda will accomplish basically what he wants. The flaw in the reasoning is the unrelenting greed and malice towards Alberta's independent spirit harbored by the liberal Ottawa elite. I have witnessed them in federal and supreme court chambers, the powers Ottawa assumes it holds over the provinces...the fuming pomposity at the notion that any province would reject Ottawa's newly prescribed subservient-wardship dependency and be more autonomous as per the original confederal agreement....none of these federally propagated notions is linear with the confederal agreement as enunciated in the BNA act ( our constitution). The feds will come raging at any western government who dare take back stolen jurisdiction, in a hissing, tooth and nail fight. The fight will, of course, be political ( by using MSM propagandists to demonize the firewall Alberta government) and by dragging it into endless SCC jurisdictional challenges and keeping it wrapped up in court instead of legislating change. Ralph ( and his T.Ross asociate retained constitutional law firm) know this...he is a comfortable old king and not up to the fight....but I believe Ted is...and he may have a few tricks up his sleave the Feds aren't counting on.

Where will the "soft indi" voter turn when he sees his firewall independence vanish in hostile fed-initiated court battles????? Stick around Bruce Hutton because all soft separation will do is prolong the misery for another 5 years or so before the softies wake up and call for referendum.

From my straw polling, and from the best poll data available, I would place the soft-indis at about 60% of the current Alberta voter base...that number will balloon after Harper is rejected and it will put into office a Ted Morton lead firewall solution. I see this as stage 1 of Alberta independence. A local vote of confidence for the firewall government is a rejection of the federal system by Albertans. Stage 2 of independence will depend on how successful a firewall government is in implementing the Alberta agenda...and how effective the firewall changes are in sheltering Alberta and Albertans from Ottawa's political/democratic/confederal degeneracy.

The certainty is that Alberta politics will change definitively after a Harper defeat and that change will usher in the road to Alberta/western independence or reconfederation. The wild card is whether ,ultimately ,separation or reconfederation will satisfy the needs and aspirations of the large soft indi demographic.

We are on the cusp of political upheaval due to degenerate central governing neglect. Alberta will take a lead roll in that change...the end product is a matter of how Ottawa reacts.



PS: One of the greatest irritants to Albertans is the displayed contempt socialists and their Ottawa governments have for private property and individual property rights. Randy Hillier of the Lanark land owners was on the radio today. It was refreshing to hear an Ontraio activist-farmer who has many of the same complaints with Toronto as Alberta has with Ottawa.